12/13/2023 0 Comments Should i amp stock speakers"I'm now worried about the actual economy. Oil, interest rates, and the dollar up has never been good for the economy."Ĩ. "The economic outlook I have is something's going to break. For the first time, it's a very low probability, but you've got to put the outcome of world war on the table." (He was underscoring how worrying the economic backdrop is today.)ħ. "You have the fiscal recklessness problem, you have supply-chain problems, you have the worst geopolitical situation I've seen in my lifetime. I don't know what we're doing at 20 times earnings." (Druckenmiller was saying the overall stock market is overpriced and valuations will retreat to historic norms.)Ħ. 15 times earnings was about right, we're at 20 times earnings. "We had a bubble, we had a QE period for 10 years, and we need to make an adjustment fundamentally and pricewise. But that very stimulus puts pressure on rates, which will cause all kinds of other things within the stock market to break."ĥ. There's a big thing going on in AI, that will probably create opportunities in the stock market. That will create opportunities in the stock market. "The stimulus the Biden admin has done is obviously very targeted, most of it toward green economy, the IRA, subsidies and tax breaks. Looking out, particularly in 2025 but maybe in 2024, you have to be open-minded to something breaking."Ĥ. It all targets toward this has been an ephemeral period when at least the equity market and the economy has ignored stuff. "Legacy liquidity after the Fed and Congress did their thing in Covid, that's running down rapidly. The bond move has already started, and if you're talking about a riot, that could certainly happen from here." (He was responding to elite trader Paul Tudor Jones's suggestion that the bond market could "absolutely riot" once it looks like either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be reelected.)ģ.
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